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由于进出口贸易额波动较大,影响因素较多,一般预测算法难以得到较为准确的预测结果。针对该问题,提出基于麻雀算法优化RVM模型的贸易预测方法。该方法首先找出影响进出口贸易的指标并通过主成分分析方法提取出指标的主因子作为模型的输入数据。以深圳进出口贸易预测为例验证该方法能够较为准确地预测进出口贸易值。
%_________________________________________________________________________________
% Salp Swarm Algorithm (SSA) source codes version 1.0
%____________________________________________________________________________________
function [FoodFitness,FoodPosition,Convergence_curve]=SSA(N,Max_iter,lb,ub,dim,fobj)
if size(ub,1)==1
ub=ones(dim,1)*ub;
lb=ones(dim,1)*lb;
end
Convergence_curve = zeros(1,Max_iter);
%Initialize the positions of salps
SalpPositions=initialization(N,dim,ub,lb);
FoodPosition=zeros(1,dim);
FoodFitness=inf;
%calculate the fitness of initial salps
for i=1:size(SalpPositions,1)
SalpFitness(1,i)=fobj(SalpPositions(i,:));
end
[sorted_salps_fitness,sorted_indexes]=sort(SalpFitness);
for newindex=1:N
Sorted_salps(newindex,:)=SalpPositions(sorted_indexes(newindex),:);
end
FoodPosition=Sorted_salps(1,:);
FoodFitness=sorted_salps_fitness(1);
%Main loop
l=2; % start from the second iteration since the first iteration was dedicated to calculating the fitness of salps
while l<Max_iter+1
c1 = 2*exp(-(4*l/Max_iter)^2); % Eq. (3.2) in the paper
for i=1:size(SalpPositions,1)
SalpPositions= SalpPositions';
if i<=N/2
for j=1:1:dim
c2=rand();
c3=rand();
%%%%%%%%%%%%% % Eq. (3.1) in the paper %%%%%%%%%%%%%%
if c3<0.5
SalpPositions(j,i)=FoodPosition(j)+c1*((ub(j)-lb(j))*c2+lb(j));
else
SalpPositions(j,i)=FoodPosition(j)-c1*((ub(j)-lb(j))*c2+lb(j));
end
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
end
elseif i>N/2 && i<N+1
point1=SalpPositions(:,i-1);
point2=SalpPositions(:,i);
SalpPositions(:,i)=(point2+point1)/2; % % Eq. (3.4) in the paper
end
SalpPositions= SalpPositions';
end
for i=1:size(SalpPositions,1)
Tp=SalpPositions(i,:)>ub';Tm=SalpPositions(i,:)<lb';SalpPositions(i,:)=(SalpPositions(i,:).*(~(Tp+Tm)))+ub'.*Tp+lb'.*Tm;
SalpFitness(1,i)=fobj(SalpPositions(i,:));
if SalpFitness(1,i)<FoodFitness
FoodPosition=SalpPositions(i,:);
FoodFitness=SalpFitness(1,i);
end
end
Convergence_curve(l)=FoodFitness;
l = l + 1;
end
[1]白霜. 基于PSO优化混合RVM模型的进出口贸易预测算法[J]. 计算机与现代化, 2014.
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